Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $433,100$ on 2020-08-03
Best fit exponential: \(2.85 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(35.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{419,601.9}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 91.1)}}\) (asimptote \(419,601.9\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $19,811$ on 2020-08-03
Best fit exponential: \(656 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{37,079.3}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 132.9)}}\) (asimptote \(37,079.3\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $115,198$ on 2020-08-03
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $361,493$ on 2020-08-03
Best fit exponential: \(1.97 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{357,381.8}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 95.3)}}\) (asimptote \(357,381.8\))
Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $9,707$ on 2020-08-03
Best fit exponential: \(276 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,254.7}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 97.5)}}\) (asimptote \(10,254.7\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $17,810$ on 2020-08-03
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $2,750,318$ on 2020-08-03
Best fit exponential: \(7.16 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,439,764.9}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 113.8)}}\) (asimptote \(3,439,764.9\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $94,665$ on 2020-08-03
Best fit exponential: \(5.76 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(31.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{103,393.2}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 93.0)}}\) (asimptote \(103,393.2\))
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $556,677$ on 2020-08-03
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $87,041$ on 2020-08-03
Best fit exponential: \(9.75 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(43.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{100,807.0}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 95.2)}}\) (asimptote \(100,807.0\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $5,767$ on 2020-08-03
Best fit exponential: \(758 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(44.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,428.0}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 71.2)}}\) (asimptote \(5,428.0\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $21,930$ on 2020-08-03
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $81,846$ on 2020-08-03
Best fit exponential: \(1.08 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{117,948.2}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 123.7)}}\) (asimptote \(117,948.2\))
Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $3,228$ on 2020-08-03
Best fit exponential: \(47.7 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,487.4}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 120.7)}}\) (asimptote \(5,487.4\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $54,108$ on 2020-08-03
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $327,850$ on 2020-08-03
Best fit exponential: \(1.78 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,316,064.8}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 167.5)}}\) (asimptote \(1,316,064.8\))
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $11,017$ on 2020-08-03
Best fit exponential: \(89.9 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{34,801.0}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 148.7)}}\) (asimptote \(34,801.0\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $143,106$ on 2020-08-03
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $206,743$ on 2020-08-03
Best fit exponential: \(1.14 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{509,620.0}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 149.2)}}\) (asimptote \(509,620.0\))
Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $3,813$ on 2020-08-03
Best fit exponential: \(62.6 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(22.5\) days)
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $111,628$ on 2020-08-03
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,893$ on 2020-08-03
Best fit exponential: \(3.7 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,444.4}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 148.9)}}\) (asimptote \(4,444.4\))
Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $27$ on 2020-08-03
Best fit exponential: \(0.523 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(20.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{28.5}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 94.0)}}\) (asimptote \(28.5\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $639$ on 2020-08-03
